ECONOMY

China Signals Continued Expansionary Policy for 2026

Published: Dec. 8, 2025 7:47 p.m. GMT+8

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China’s top leadership has pledged to maintain an expansionary policy stance in 2026, as the year marks the start of the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan.

The Politburo said Monday that it will retain the 2025 policy framework — “more proactive” fiscal measures and a “moderately loose” monetary stance — while strengthening the foresight, precision and coordination of macro policy and increasing both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments.

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China's leadership will maintain expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in 2026, starting the 15th Five-Year Plan.
2025 GDP growth reached 5.2% year-on-year; 2026 growth target is expected near 5% with a deficit-to-GDP ratio around 4%.
Domestic demand, consumption, innovation, and reform are policy priorities; addressing major risks, including property sector issues, has lower emphasis.

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Who’s Who

Guosheng Securities: Xiong Yuan, an economist at Guosheng Securities, believes China is likely to set its 2026 growth target near 5%. He suggests that expansionary policies will continue due to persistent tariff-related uncertainties, which will positively influence the beginning of the new Five-Year Plan.

Nomura: Nomura's Chief China Economist, Lu Ting, suggests that China's 2026 growth target will likely be between 4.5% and 5%. This projection considers the government's heightened focus on inclusive and secure growth, especially given challenges like property sector weakness, trade tensions, an aging population, and efforts to curb excessive competition.

Vanke: Vanke is a Chinese developer, and the article mentions that it is facing debt-extension pressures. This is occurring amidst a persistent real estate downturn in China, even as resolving major risks has fallen to the bottom of the country's policy agenda.

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