Commentary: Why Mid-April Will Force the U.S. and Iran to the Negotiating Table
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Oil tankers are docked nearby in Muscat, Oman, on March 9, 2026. Photo: IC photo
The geopolitical shockwaves of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war have fundamentally upended global energy markets. For decades, oil pricing was a straightforward calculus of supply, demand, and production quotas. Today, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed the market into a hostage to extreme geopolitical risks, rendering traditional economic models obsolete.
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- Strait of Hormuz blockade from U.S.-Israel-Iran war disrupts oil markets, with prices swinging on Trump's statements amid midterm motives.
- Resolution likely in 1 week to 1 month, mid-April critical; supply tightness persists into 2026 despite bypasses offsetting <1/3 volume.
- Asia vulnerable to crude/chemical shortages; accelerates supply diversification and energy transition.
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Who’s Who
- Rystad Energy
- Rystad Energy is an energy research firm where Ye Lin serves as Vice Director of Oil Market Research. The article, authored by Ye Lin, analyzes geopolitical risks to global oil markets from a U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.
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