Commentary: China’s Export Dip in March Is a Statistical Illusion
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A large number of domestically produced vehicles waiting to be loaded onto ships for export at Yantai Port, Shandong on March 26, 2026. Photo: VCG
Data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that China’s dollar-denominated exports grew by a mere 2.5% year-over-year in March, while imports surged 27.8%. The trade surplus narrowed to $51.13 billion from the previous $90.98 billion. Coupled with Oman crude prices briefly breaching $150 a barrel and geopolitical risk premiums soaring, a chill has inevitably swept through the markets.
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- China's March exports rose 2.5% YoY to record $321B (+7.1% MoM), slowed by Lunar New Year calendar distortion; imports +27.8%, surplus $51.13B.
- AI supply chain boomed (data equipment +37.1% YoY, ICs +84.9%); NEV exports hit 50.2% of cars (+74.3% total).
- Positive outlook: >5% full-year growth via price stickiness, energy cost edge, new energy strength.
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Who’s Who
- China Securities Co. Ltd.
- Zhou Junzhi, chief macroeconomic analyst at China Securities Co. Ltd., authored the article on China's robust export growth despite seasonal distortions and high oil prices.
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