Commentary: The Taiwan Card, Repriced
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President Xi Jinping holds a private meeting with U.S. President Donald J. Trump at Zhongnanhai on May 15. Photo: Xinhua
* Washington’s top priority is managing China’s rise without direct war.
* The cross-Strait “status quo” is disputed: Washington means peace short of war; Beijing means ideological deference.
* Beijing might welcome U.S. mediation, provided Washington restrains Taiwan independence forces.
Among the myriad issues negotiated during the recent Xi-Trump summit in Beijing, none portends a greater geopolitical shift than a recalibration of U.S. policy toward Taiwan.
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What Happened When
- 1982：
- Reagan administration provided the 'Six Assurances' to Taipei alongside the August 17 Communiqué, pledging to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan and secretly assuring Taipei that the U.S. did not consult Beijing on arms transfers nor set a terminal date for ending them.
- 1998：
- Bill Clinton articulated the 'Three No's,' declaring that the U.S. did not support Taiwan independence, 'two Chinas,' or Taiwan's membership in state-based international organizations.
- 2000–2008：
- Chen Shui-bian's independence-leaning administration; the 'co-pilot' mechanism helped contain crisis risks during this period.
- 2008–2016：
- Ma Ying-jeou administration; the 'co-pilot' model successfully sustained peace during this period.
- August 2022：
- Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei; Beijing responded with unprecedented military deterrence drills, erasing historic buffer zones and hardening the strategic deadlock, which collapsed the 'co-pilot' mechanism and severed vital military-to-military communications.
- April 2026：
- Xi Jinping met Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun; Beijing partially reversed a 2019 ban on mainland tourism to Taiwan for residents of select cities.
- As of 2026：
- Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party under Lai Ching-te had yet to reciprocate the partial tourism lift.
AI generated, for reference only
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