Caixin
Caixin Global – Latest China News & Headlines

Home >

TRENDING
TCL Tech to Buy Back Panel Unit Stake for $1.3 Billion
Optical Interconnect Maker Lightelligence Files for Hong Kong IPO
U.S. Chipmaker Onsemi Doubles Down on China With New Shanghai Headquarters
LATEST
TCL Tech to Buy Back Panel Unit Stake for $1.3 Billion
CAS Space Seeks IPO as China’s Reusable Rocket Race Heats Up
U.S. Chipmaker Onsemi Doubles Down on China With New Shanghai Headquarters
Optical Interconnect Maker Lightelligence Files for Hong Kong IPO
CAS Space Launches Reusable Rocket in China’s Satellite Push
DeepSeek Goes Out for 10 Hours Amid China’s AI Demand Surge
OpenClaw Craze Is Driving Next Phase of AI Development, Insiders Say
China, South Korea Robotics Firms Explore Embodied AI Cooperation
Analysis: Meta’s Manus Deal Faces Scrutiny in China Over Tech Exports, Antitrust Concerns
Chinese GPU Maker MetaX Doubles Revenue Amid Push for Domestic Chips
Kuaishou Ramps Up AI Commercialization as Kling Revenue Hits $150 Million
Alibaba Launches AI Agent for Small Businesses With International Ambitions
China Telecom to Boost AI Spending Amid Capex Cut and Slowing Growth
Siemens Unveils 26 China-Made Products in Industrial AI Push
Alibaba’s Qwen Launches AI Ride-Hailing Feature to Rival Didi
AI Agents to Reshape Global White-Collar Economy, Alibaba Chairman Says
China Opens First National Testing Center for Flying Cars
Tencent Folds AI Lab Into Hunyuan Team in Major AI Overhaul
Unitree Robotics Files for $608 Million STAR Market IPO
Xiaomi Unveils Trio of Large AI Models in $8.7 Billion Bet

By Bloomberg / Dec 17, 2018 02:53 PM / Economy

Photo: Bloomberg

Photo: Bloomberg

China’s exchange rate is likely to get more volatile in time as the country pushes greater international use of the yuan, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

While the yuan-internationalization campaign hit a setback as China tightened regulation of capital flows in the wake of a messy 2015 devaluation, there’s increasing pressure for policy makers to take up the initiative again, economists including MK Tang wrote in a note Monday.

China’s current account will tip into deficit in coming years, in the view of many strategists, as its increasingly large economy continues to grow faster than the rest of the world. In financing that deficit, China could reduce risks if it acquired funding in its own currency -- much like the U.S. does now, and unlike more vulnerable countries such as Brazil, Goldman noted.

By reducing reliance on the dollar, China could also avoid the kind of vulnerability Russia has faced with U.S. sanctions on its companies, it said.

“After a brief hiatus in the last couple of years, global promotion of the RMB will likely be supported with a greater sense of urgency,” the team wrote. The RMB refers to the renminbi, an official name for China’s currency.

One occurrence that’s likely to come is a convergence between the yuan traded offshore, known as CNH, and that traded onshore, known as CNY, the economists argued. Their analysis of discrepancies between the two suggested that yuan volatility would be “much closer to that of other major currencies” once exchange-rate controls were eased.

“A truly global currency is one whose worth should be essentially indifferent to country boundaries,” the Goldman economists wrote. “Should CNY’s fluctuations one day indeed become as large as those of other major currencies, it may also significantly push up the volatility of the other Asian” emerging-market currencies, they added.

Up to now, Asian exchange rates have tended to fluctuate less than other emerging nation currencies, possibly because the yuan has played an “anchor” role, Goldman said.

Related: It Has Been a Bad Year for the Yuan. 2019 Could Be Worse

Share this article
Open WeChat and scan the QR code