Caixin
Caixin Global – Latest China News & Headlines

Home >

TRENDING
Analysis: Alibaba’s New Processor Shows Applications Are Key to AI Chip Success
In Depth: Megvii Co-Founder Is Back Riding the Latest AI Wave
Beijing Humanoid Robotics Hub Raises $100 Million in First Funding Round
LATEST
Beijing Humanoid Robotics Hub Raises $100 Million in First Funding Round
Analysis: Alibaba’s New Processor Shows Applications Are Key to AI Chip Success
Aerofugia Raises Nearly $150 Million to Get Flying Taxis Certified
Alibaba Pledges $432 Million in Lunar New Year AI Subsidy War
In Depth: Megvii Co-Founder Is Back Riding the Latest AI Wave
China Fines Kuaishou Unit $3.8 Million for E-Commerce Violations
Chips Drive China’s Electronics Exports
Robots Take the Stage at China’s Spring Festival Gala
Alibaba Unveils New AI Chip to Rival Nvidia’s China Offerings
ASML Expects China Revenue Drop Following Backlog-Fueled Surge
China’s Telecom Industry Stalls as Traditional Revenue Dries Up
TikTok Outage Puts New U.S. Operations to the Test
Moonshot AI Gets More Into Agents With New Model
Texas Doubles Down on China Tech Ban, Adding AI and E-Commerce Giants
Chinese GPU-Maker Challenges Nvidia in Three-Year Development Plan
In Depth: Tencent Bets Its AI Future on 28-Year-Old From OpenAI
Alibaba Sets Sights on ChatGPT and Gemini With New AI Model
China’s AI App Developers Lure New Users With Digital Red Envelopes
StepFun Raises $717 Million, Outpacing Newly Listed AI Rivals
LandSpace Pushes Ahead With $1.1 Billion IPO as Exchange Reviews Application

By Bloomberg / Dec 17, 2018 02:53 PM / Economy

Photo: Bloomberg

Photo: Bloomberg

China’s exchange rate is likely to get more volatile in time as the country pushes greater international use of the yuan, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

While the yuan-internationalization campaign hit a setback as China tightened regulation of capital flows in the wake of a messy 2015 devaluation, there’s increasing pressure for policy makers to take up the initiative again, economists including MK Tang wrote in a note Monday.

China’s current account will tip into deficit in coming years, in the view of many strategists, as its increasingly large economy continues to grow faster than the rest of the world. In financing that deficit, China could reduce risks if it acquired funding in its own currency -- much like the U.S. does now, and unlike more vulnerable countries such as Brazil, Goldman noted.

By reducing reliance on the dollar, China could also avoid the kind of vulnerability Russia has faced with U.S. sanctions on its companies, it said.

“After a brief hiatus in the last couple of years, global promotion of the RMB will likely be supported with a greater sense of urgency,” the team wrote. The RMB refers to the renminbi, an official name for China’s currency.

One occurrence that’s likely to come is a convergence between the yuan traded offshore, known as CNH, and that traded onshore, known as CNY, the economists argued. Their analysis of discrepancies between the two suggested that yuan volatility would be “much closer to that of other major currencies” once exchange-rate controls were eased.

“A truly global currency is one whose worth should be essentially indifferent to country boundaries,” the Goldman economists wrote. “Should CNY’s fluctuations one day indeed become as large as those of other major currencies, it may also significantly push up the volatility of the other Asian” emerging-market currencies, they added.

Up to now, Asian exchange rates have tended to fluctuate less than other emerging nation currencies, possibly because the yuan has played an “anchor” role, Goldman said.

Related: It Has Been a Bad Year for the Yuan. 2019 Could Be Worse

Share this article
Open WeChat and scan the QR code