Wang Tao: What Are Some Macroeconomic Surprises for China in 2022

The risks to our forecasts would mainly come from Covid-related uncertainties, especially domestic restrictions, the magnitude of the property downturn and the scale of policy support. In the case of longer-lasting tight Covid-19 restrictions or a deeper property downturn, GDP growth in 2022 could drop to 4%. Meanwhile, any upside, either from stronger exports or faster relaxation of Covid policy, will be limited, as China would limit macro policy support in that case. The events below are not our baseline forecasts but possible surprises: